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Tuesday, March 1, 2016

"So we see that Cruz runs best in counties with high numbers of married voters and voters with kids, and poorly in counties with high levels of education, new houses, and high unemployment. The same is basically true of Carson (leading to questions whether the reason Carson has stayed in this long is payback to Cruz for some of the supposed dirty tricks coming out of Iowa). Kasich does well in counties with newer homes, high levels of education, and high incomes, and does poorly in counties with fewer transplants, lower levels of education, and high levels of renters. We see the same basic tendency with Rubio. Trump, on the other hand, does well in counties with low levels of education, high unemployment and lots of renters, and poorly in counties with high education and high income. Note that he does well in areas with large numbers of African-Americans. Since few African-Americans vote in GOP primaries, this probably has more to do with the whites who are living there, which could possibly be explained by the “racial threat” hypothesis in political science (tracing at least back to V.O. Key, which concluded that whites who lived in areas with high African-American populations were more susceptible to racialized appeals than elsewhere)."

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